Savagehttp://www2.macleans.ca/?p=175398
No one in Washington gives more deliberate and nuanced thought to Canada-US relations than Chris Sands at the Hudson Institute. So when Chris comes out with a new report on the border strategy, it`s worth reading.
The Canada Gambit: Will it Revive North America? [Hudson Institute Security & Foreign Affairs Briefing Paper by Chis Sands]
This is a long paper that covers a lot of ground: a step-by-step granular back report to how the border security declarations came to be including a lot of setting about the evolution of thinking at the Section of Homeland Security under Obama and Napolitano.
Sands notes that the the declarations mark a loss from the trilateral - Canada, US, and Mexico - approach of days past. (I have written around the death of the three amigos approach as well, see: The End of North American Trilateralism.)
Unlike many commentators in Canada who argued that Canada needed to dismiss the continental approach in favour of a bilateral "special relationship", Sands argues that this is a mistake:
Without a North American dialogue on regulation and inspection, both Canadian andÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;Mexican concerns will potentially be overshadowed by U.S. dialogue with China and theÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;European Union, as good as by multilateral initiatives within the G-20 and other forums.#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;One cause for this is that the United States presently has significant market access inÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;both the Canadian and Mexican markets, and in bilateral negotiations with either partnerÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;the asymmetries of power favor the United States, which therefore is usually able to get what it wants from its neighbour to the extent that the neighbor can deliver. Market accessÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;in Europe and Asia is more problematic, and Capital can not ever get its wayÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;without a sustained effort and significant concessions. Ã#8218;#194;nbsp;The Washington Declarations reflect CanadaÃ#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8222;#162;s desire to re-bilateralize its relationshipÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;with the United States, which many Canadians believe will allow talks with the UnitedÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;States to advance further because the countries are similarly developed and sophisticated.#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;Some Canadians hanker for the restoration of a supposed golden age of bilateral partnership,#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;and consider that the exception of Mexico will benefit its restoration.#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;The welfare of re-bilateralization for the United States is less clear. While there is ampleÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;justification for approaching the borders separately to answer to local conditions, in theÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;past this has been through with the reason that the U.S.Mexican border would catchÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;up eventually, and that Mexico would take the prospect to honor U.S.Canadian talks inÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;order to predict future changes; in effect, a North America at two speeds. ThisÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;balancing act kept the political alliance in support of economic integration in NorthÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;America together in Congress, and within Democratic and Republican administrations.#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;This alliance was not always sufficient for progress, but it was constantly necessary forÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;dialogue.#195;#8218;#194;nbsp;The exception of the Mexicans through the Canada Gambit also increases the likelihoodÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;that U.S. domestic regulatory reform and perimeter security debates will dominate theÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;bilateral initiatives launched in the Washington Declarations. By restricting the potentialÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;U.S. stakeholders in the process, the governments have also modified the appeal ofÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;concessions by the U.S. government on a bilateral basis. Canada will make the risk toÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;observe U.S. domestic debates in order to anticipate future changes; in effect, a NorthÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;America at one speed, which will be the rate of Americanization.
Sands is also critical about the deficiency of foil and the censure of Parliament and Intercourse in the process. I perfectly agree. I was quite stunned when soon after the Obama-Harper meetings in Washington, I interviewed Candice Miller, chair of the perimeter security subcommittee in the US House of Representatives, and a Republican from Chicago who is potentifriend Canada`s best ally on border issues in the US Congress because she really knows and cares about the northern border. Miller said what she had hear of the border security plan was "undefined" and she said:
IÃ#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8222;#162;m not quite certain whoÃ#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8222;#162;s going to be on the working committee, and where they are going with their total work product. We hope Ã#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8364;#339; not only myself, but IÃ#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8222;#162;m sure former members of this committee and other members of Congress Ã#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8364;#339; Ã#8218;#194;nbsp;will need to make some input into what theyÃ#162;#226;#8218;#172;#226;#8222;#162;re putting together.
If anyone should be kept in the loop, it`s Miller.
I concur with Sands when he writes:
The Washington Declarations on the U.S.Canadian border and regulatory cooperationÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;make no note of the U.S. Congress or the Canadian Parliament. Like the BushÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;administration, the Obama administration appears to be engrossed on restricting talks withÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;Canada to areas inside the statutory authority of administrative departments and agenciesÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;so that it is not essential to seek prior congressional approval for negotiations. Ã#8218;#194;nbsp;Frustrated U.S. stakeholders frozen out of the new discussions on edge and regulatoryÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;cooperation will necessarily complain to Congress, and seek congressional oversight ofÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;bilateral talks with Canada. This will both politicize the work and make concessionsÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;harder. It will also drive the Obama administration to spend additional political capital toÃ#8218;#194;nbsp;rescue bilateral talks when problems arise.
As mentioned, the entire report is here.
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